http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/
Her har vi en Harvard-økonom som kan all teorien, og som konkluderer med at frihandel ikke alltid er like fantastisk som ideologene vil ha det til. En artikkel han skrev handlet om hvordan han av kolleger ikke ble kritisert for økonomien, men for å gi ammunisjon til "barbarene" - jeg regner med at de siktet til Attac-medlemmer og andre uhyrer. Så bedre tillittserklæring kan man vel ikke få.
Et eksempel fra en artikkel fra de siste dagene: http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/05/and_now_on_to_s.html
So here is a straightforward economics question: under what conditions will trade liberalization enhance economic performance?
If you answered "under any and all," you flunk. Here is the correct answer (adapted from here):
- The liberalization must be complete or else the reduction in import restrictions must take into account the potentially quite complicated structure of substitutability and complementarity across restricted commodities.
- There must be no externalities or microeconomic market imperfections other than the trade restrictions in question, or if there are some, the second-best interactions that are entailed must not be adverse.
- There must not be any increasing returns to scale, or else activities with scale economies must expand "on average."
- The home economy must be "small" in world markets, or else the liberalization must not put the economy on the wrong side of the "optimum tariff."
- The economy must be in reasonably full employment, or if not, the monetary and fiscal authorities must have effective tools of demand management at their disposal.
- The income-redistributive effects of the liberalization should not be judged undesirable by society at large, or if they are, there must be compensatory tax-transfer schemes with low enough excess burden.
- There must be no adverse effects on the fiscal balance, or if there are, there must be alternative and expedient ways of making up for the lost fiscal revenues.
- The economy must not have a trade deficit that is already "too large," or else nominal wages or the exchange rate must adjust to compensate.
- The liberalization must be politically sustainable and hence credible so that economic agents do not fear or anticipate a reversal.
